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But the flooding was ultimately traced back to heavier-than-usual storms during the summer monsoon.įlooding in the Indian state of Kerala killed hundreds of people this year. Some have criticized local officials for not better managing the build-up of water behind local dams. The weather might not have been the only problem in this case. More than 1 million people fled their homes. Throughout the state, landslides swept into towns and buildings as sodden ground collapsed. The first 20 days of August brought 164% more rain than usual. In Kerala, it all started with a wet June and July, and accelerated over the following month. “And things will be completely nuts by the end of the century if we keep doing what we’re doing now.” More moisture “The next 20 years will be worse than the last 20 years - all indications point to that,” says Angeline Pendergrass, an atmospheric scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado. Other research indicates that the ways in which thunderstorms organize themselves could change fundamentally, leading to bigger and more-powerful storms that could mean more flooding.Īll that makes Florence, the Indian disaster and other devastating downpours a probable glimpse of the future if greenhouse-gas emissions continue to rise. Some of the most sophisticated forecasts suggest that as the globe warms, more rains will fall in severe, intermittent storms rather than in the kind of gentle soaking showers that can sustain crops. Now, many research teams are making advances in understanding the future of extreme precipitation across the world, thanks to models with very high resolution that can provide insight into how storms evolve.
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But forecasting how the most punishing rains might change in the future has been notoriously difficult, because scientists can’t easily simulate these storms in computer models.
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In the United States, flooding, severe storms and tropical cyclones account for 9 of the 11 natural disasters that have topped US$1 billion in damages so far this year. This year, heavy rains in the Indian state of Kerala killed more than 470 people, and flooding in southwestern Japan left more than 200 dead. Even before Florence made landfall, a team based at Stony Brook University in New York predicted that the hurricane’s heaviest rains would dump at least 50% more precipitation than would have happened had people not warmed the planet.Įxtreme rains - along with the flooding, landslides and other devastation they cause - are some of the deadliest weather events worldwide. The warmer the atmosphere, the more moisture it can hold, which means storms can get wetter. Climate scientists expect that as global temperatures rise, much more rain will fall in extreme storms. The story of how Florence brought a thriving region to its knees is about to get a lot more familiar. Even now, months later, the area is struggling to recover. Dozens of people died, and the storm racked up tens of billions of dollars in damages. In some places, the deluge continued non-stop for four days.īy the time it was all over, Florence had dumped record amounts of rain - including nearly one metre in the town of Elizabethtown, North Carolina - and caused catastrophic flooding. On 15 September, Florence finally crashed into the United States, where it slowed to a crawl and unleashed even heavier rains. As the giant storm lurched towards land, officials ordered more than 1.5 million people to evacuate, warning of “life-threatening” damage. The downpour began on 13 September, when the centre of Hurricane Florence was still hundreds of kilometres from North Carolina’s coast.